Concerts, sports events and festivals may not resume until late 2021 - here's why

As it looks increasingly likely that the UK government will announce an extended lockdown, many of us are keen to know when we can go back to enjoying sports games, concerts and festivals.

But these types of large scale events are likely to be unsafe to attend until late 2021, says Zeke Emanuel, director of the Healthcare Transformation Institute at the University of Pennsylvania.

Mr Emanuel was part of an expert panel assembled by the New York Times on life after the Covid-19 pandemic in the USA. On the subject of resuming large events, Emanuel said, “You can’t just flip a switch and open the whole of society up. It’s just not going to work. It’s too much. The virus will definitely flare back to the worst levels.”

According to Mr Emanuel, large-scale events need to be the last thing to be reinstated, and the economy will need to be restarted in stages.

He said, “It does have to start with more physical distancing at a work site that allows people who are at lower risk to come back. Certain kinds of construction, or manufacturing or offices, in which you can maintain six-foot distances are more reasonable to start sooner.

"Larger gatherings - conferences, concerts, sporting events  when people say they’re going to reschedule this conference or graduation event for October 2020, I have no idea how they think that’s a plausible possibility. I think those things will be the last to return. Realistically we’re talking fall 2021 at the earliest.”

Why such a long wait?

Mr Emanuel's prediction for when large gatherings will be allowed to begin again has to do with the length of time it will take to produce a vaccine. Vaccination is the only way that everyone will be able to safely meet in large crowds without a huge spike in Covid-19 cases.